The Fatal Mirage of Kharg Island
Why Zion Don would be well advised to dispense with his island hopping larp
As the Iran war settles into its fourth week and Israeli-American hopes of fostering regime change in Tehran remain ever elusive, the conversation has shifted to the topic of ground invasion, specifically that of the island of Kharg.
Located 25 km off the coast of mainland Iran, the small, sunny island, less than a third the size of Manhattan, has become the focus of global attention in recent days. The cause lies in Iran's unique geographic characteristics.
Though Iran possesses a coastline of 1700 km, most of it is shallow and ill-conducive to the berthing of very large and ultra-large crude carriers that are the lifeblood of oceanborne oil trade. Kharg island with its natural deep waters, stands apart from the rest of Iran’s coastal cities in this regard, and its seaport can accommodate up to ten supertankers at once.
This artifact of geography has led to the 20 sq km becoming the lynchpin of the Iranian petroleum export network, and the node where multiple crude oil and natural gas pipelines converge.
Indeed, 90% of Iran’s seaborne petroleum exports, including crude oil, natural gas, and oil derivatives, are handled via the port at Kharg Island. The island handles up to 2 million barrels of crude oil exports per day and has a storage capacity of 30 million barrels of oil. The overwhelming majority of Iran’s crude and condensate exports flow through Kharg, and 90% finds its way into the harbors of East Asia, with China being the largest customer.
These factors make the island an attractive target for Israeli-American air power, but also an asset of the utmost strategic importance for Iran. Petroleum products account for almost 60% of the nation’s exports and are its primary means of acquiring foreign currency and maintaining a balance of payments.
Iran has consistently maintained that it will respond to strikes on its oil & gas infrastructure with corresponding strikes on Israeli and GCC infrastructure, and thus far has made good on its promise. In response to attacks on Iran’s South Pars Gas facilities, Iranian missiles have struck the BAZAN refinery in Haifa, which provides 80% of Israeli diesel and gasoline needs, the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, which is the world’s largest LNG export facility, and the Hasban Gas Facility in the UAE.
These retaliatory attacks, along with the skyrocketing price of crude oil and natural gas in international markets has thus far given pause to the Epstein Shtetl Trump admin in regards to waging an oil war on Iran. The admin is already engaged in rank manipulation of oil futures by shorting futures, and this has blown up the historically narrow gap between physical and paper oil.
In a bid to contain oil prices, Trump has also authorized the release of 173 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with IEA members, which together have planned the release of 400 million barrels of oil.
In a bizarre twist of fate, Trump has also eased sanctions on Russian oil & gas, a country upon which the US has been waging a proxy war for four years now, and which is providing intelligence aid to Iran in its current struggle against America.
Even more hilariously, Trump has eased sanctions on Iranian oil itself, thus helping the country he aims to overthrow earn more money from the war. The Art of the Deal indeed!
There is, however good reason for Trump’s restraint and desperation to suppress oil prices. Contrary to popular opinion, oil is used not just for filling up your gas tank but also has a myriad of industrial uses. In fact, so great is the modern world’s dependency on oil that it can rightly be asserted that we live in the Petrocene.
Rising oil prices could lead to a global economic depression, which in turn can cause the downfall of America and end its status as a world power, permanently. Yes, the US is self-sufficient in oil, but its financial empire is dependent on the dollar, its stock market, and most critically, its bond market. The US may very well be one depression away from Argentinafication, but that’s an article for another time.
In short, it can be asserted that the Trump admin has been thus far hesitant to hit Iranian oil, but its options for avoiding a play on Iranian oil are thinning out.
The Iran war has settled into a war of attrition where Iran lobs inexpensive Ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones at American and Israeli targets in the Middle East, which their air defenses shoot down with exorbitantly expensive interceptors with semi-regular success.
Iranian missile attacks, combined with drone strikes and artillery fire from Iraqi Shia militias, have forced the withdrawal of US troops from that country. As of March 24th, all NATO troops have vacated territory ruled by the Federal government of Iraq, with only a few forces maintining presence in the Erbil region governed by the Kurdish Regional Government. In the space of three weeks, Iran has effectively liberated the country of Iraq, a country that had been under American occupation since 2003.
Similarly, the US has been forced to draw down its military presence in the Gulf States in the face of relentless Iranian drone and missile assault. All the while, Iran continues to keep the vital Strait of Hormuz blockaded.
Eerily similar to the British blockade that brought down Germany in WW1, the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz has effectively put a timer on America’s war effort. The Gulf States import nearly 80% of their food, and 70% of that comes through the straits of Hormuz.
If the blockade continues, it is only a matter of time before Gulf Arab States face mass starvation or, at the very least, hyperinflation if they attempt to import food via trucks or rail via Jordan, Syria, and Turkey. It’s debatable if such a land route would even have the necessary throughput to provide a fraction of the required food for the Gulf States.
At that point, these states will have no choice but to accede to whatever demands Iran places upon them, be it dedollarization, eviction of the US military from their countries, dumping US bonds and assets, or paying Iran a trillion dollars in reparations. Either they agree to Iran’s terms or face mass starvation and the overthrow of their monarchies.
The US is thus in a race against time to preserve its position in the Middle East and to save its financial empire and bond markets. However, militarily, there is no viable means to break the blockade. The Lincoln Carrier Strike Group stationed in the Indian Ocean maintains a distance of 700-1000 km from Iranian shores to steer clear of anti-ship missiles.
The workhorse of the carrier group, the F/A-18 Superhornet, has a combat range of only 719 km with a typical interdiction loadout of 4× Mark 83 bombs, 2× AIM-9, and 2× drop tanks. As such, it cannot provide any meaningful coverage over the vast coastlines of Iran, where the anti-ship missile batteries and drone launchers of the country are situated.
It is equally impossible for US combat aircraft flying in from Israel, Jordan, and Cyprus, from 1200 km away and with multiple tanker refuelings, to provide any length of meaningful coverage over the vast coastal regions of Iran. Even if they could, most of Iran’s missile infrastructure is hidden deep beneath the Zagros mountains and can quickly emerge from the tunnel complexes to fire a volley and withdraw. Buried beneath mountains in bunkers made from UHP concrete, these missile cities are practically indestructible, and even strikes with 200 kt nuclear warheads would not destroy them.
Drones can be launched from any repurposed Toyota Hilux, and Iranian drones such as the legendary Shahed-136, the Hadid-110, and the Arash-2 boast ranges from 350 km to 2000 km. And the straits at their narrowest are only 58 km
It’s a shooting gallery, and no sane navy would agree to sail into them. Trump initially wished to have the US Navy escort ships in and out of the straits, but the US Navy soundly shot down his proposal.
As a consequence of these factors, there remains no military path to opening the blockade of the Hormuz for the Trump administration, at least not with air or naval power. Iran can freely shoot at any tanker or bulk carrier in the Persian Gulf with drones and missiles, and without a destroyer escorting them, they are defenseless to such attacks. Any warship attempting to enter the straits to begin with would be subjected to a deluge of anti ship missile and drone attacks. In addition to all this, Iran has also begun the process of mining the straits to further restrict freedom of movement and direct shipping through maritime corridors of its own choosing.
Hypothetically, a ground invasion of Iran can overturn all these issues by occupying the coastline and denying the staging grounds for drone and missile attacks on shipping, but that is improbable for a whole host of reasons that can be explored in a later piece. And in any case, even the task of assembling a hypothetical ground force would take many long months to complete.
The Gulf States cannot survive that long, and neither can the world economy and, by extension, bond markets. Faced with this dilemma, Trump has characteristically settled on a hairbrained solution: Seizing Kharg Island.
As reported by Axios and amplified by Reuters, Trump may have settled on the following plan: Use a naval or air assault to seize Kharg Island and hold Iran’s oil exports hostage. Then use the island as a bargaining chip to get Iran to open the Straits of Hormuz.
Despite how silly and impractical such a ruse seems, Trump is seemingly directing the US military to move towards that end. The US military is moving two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) to the Middle East as we speak.
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/2200-us-marines-to-arrive-in-middle-east-on-march-27-on-trumps-hormuz-deadline-3216825?s=1
The 11th MEU is being redeployed to the Middle East from California, while the 31st MEU is being brought to CENTCOM all the way from Japan. An MEU is composed of 2200 Marines and sailors, of whom roughly half belong to the ground combat component. The units are built around the amphibious assault ships in the group and are deployed via landing craft and helicopters, and supported by VTOL (Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft like the Harrier or the F-35B.
In short, an MEU is basically a reinforced battalion capable of being deployed to any corner of the globe and sustaining itself in combat operations.
Two such units would constitute a force of nearly 8000 marines and sailors, and be able to deploy a force of nearly two battalions to Kharg.
All attention has been focused on these units, which observers breathlessly predict will arrive in the Middle East to coincide with the expiration of Trump’s 5-day warning time to Iran.
While the MEUs are significant and may come into play later, in my opinion, they are a bit of a red herring.
The marine battalion of an MEU is built around its amphibious assault ships, and in order to reach Kharg, not only would these ships have to sail into the Straits of Hormuz through Iranian minefields, but they would also have to sail more than 900 km north to reach their destination. As they travel north, they would be in full view of the Iranian military and undoubtedly would be assaulted by a relentless deluge of drones, anti-ship missiles, and possibly even submarine attack or attacks by USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels).
This is a feat even the Lincoln Carrier Group, with its escort of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers specialized in air defense missions, has not dared to attempt.
One could argue that the Marines could do an air assault on Kharg Island instead, flying there on helicopters from outside the Straits. However, such a plan is limited by the low combat range of the V-22 Osprey Helicopters that would be used to undertake the mission. With a combat radius of 720 km, they do not have the range to undertake such a mission.
For these reasons, I believe it is unlikely that the Marines would be the ones to undertake the operation to seize Kharg Island. That task will likely fall on the shoulders of the 82nd Airborne Division.
Launching from airbases in Jordan and Israel, the 82nd Airborne Division could be expected to do a HAHO (High Altitude High Opening) jump to land in Kharg and seize the island. It would be an operation reminiscent of the famous parachute assaults of WW2, such as the German parachute assault to take Eben-Emael and Crete, or the Allied parachute drops on D-Day and Market Garden.
The buildup leading up to the airborne attack is expected to continue into the week, and one can expect rangers and other special forces to be involved in the final operation.
Iranian air defenses have been significantly degraded over the course of three weeks of war, and they’re mostly limited to air ambushes with short-range air defense systems. Sometimes they can score an opportunistic hit on an enemy aircraft if it’s overflying Iranian territory, like with the F-35 hit, but against a large US air assault supported by dozens of fighters flying SEAD and ground attack missions? Not much of a chance.
It’s very unlikely that US C-17s dropping the paratroopers and their supplies would be shot down or hindered in any meaningful measure by Iran’s beleaguered air defense.
The US forces will be able to enter the island safely, but exiting might be a different story.
Kharg lies within a 60 km radius of two Iranian cities: Bushehr, with a population of 220,000, and Bandar-e Ganaveh, with a population of 73,000.
From the urban cover of these cities, and the towns and mountain ranges beyond them, Iranians can maintain constant drone reconnaissance over the island. The IRGC and the Iranian army can call upon a constant barrage of drone and ballistic missile strikes upon any American troops they spot. Landing helicopters or small ships to evacuate wounded troops or bringing in supplies would be intolerably risky, as any vessel that stops at the island would be a target for ballistic missile strikes.
US aircraft can intercept attacking drones with a degree of success, but are powerless to stop ballistic missiles, which come in at some high supersonic speeds. Iran has a vast arsenal of cheap, but accurate SRBMs (Short Range Ballistic Missiles) like the Fateh-110/313, the Zolfighar, or the Fateh-360 heavy MLRS. These systems can fire at coordinates on the island from deep within Iran, far beyond the interdiction range of Israeli-American air power. If push comes to shove, it can even fire MRBMs(Medium Range Ballistic Missiles) from Eastern Iran, a thousand kilometers away.
Iranian MRBMs have repeatedly shown themselves to possess excellent accuracy, as demonstrated by their ability to accurately target individual buildings in Israel from 1500 km away. A famous example of this capability would be the Iranian strike on the Chaim Weizmann Institute in Rehovot during the 12-day war.
Contrary to popular opinion in many dissident circles, Ballistic missiles can be intercepted with some reliability, especially with exoatmospheric interceptors like the THAAD, Arrow-3, or SM-3, albeit with highly unfavourable economics. However, no such systems exist any longer in the Gulf States or Iraq as Iranian missile and drone attacks have destroyed TPY-2 radars of the THAAD system in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar. SM-3s are fired from Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, and they cannot enter the Persian Gulf due to aforementioned reasons.
This leaves air defense systems like the Patriot and David’s Sling, which can intercept ballistic missiles at the terminal phase but with lower odds of success. To defend an area from ballistic missiles, the launchers have to be placed close to the area in question. Such an arrangement would be wholly impossible in Kharg, as a Patriot Battery can’t be air-dropped from planes via parachute.
Thus, any American personnel present in Kharg would be defenseless against Iranian ballistic missile attacks, and the topology of Kharg provides for little cover.
As one can notice, there’s almost no tree cover for troops to hide under. There is an urban agglomeration to the island’s northeast, a natural gas power plant in the northern tip, and oil storage infrastructure in the south. Other than that, most of the island’s terrain consists of barren flatland.
In fact, there aren’t even many places on the island to parachute into. You can’t airdrop right into a city, a power plant, or oil vats. There are a limited number of viable spots. Obvious ones like the runway would almost certainly be mined.
And all this till now has not even engaged with the four-ton elephant in the room: Iranian resistance.
People are generally fond of drawing parallels to history when describing current-day events (myself included), and the battle for Kharg Island would have a very strong historical parallel: The Battle of Iwo Jima.
It was similarly a tiny island like Kharg, being 28 sq km in size, and was fiercely fought over during the final year of the Pacific War.
In fact, one of Trump’s close allies, the esteemed lady from South Carolina, Senator Lindsay Graham, explicitly drew the comparison.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5796192-lindsey-graham-kharg-island/
“I trust the Marines, not that guy,” Graham said of The Atlantic’s pessimistic assessment. “I trust DOD [Department of Defense]. We’ve got two Marine expeditionary area units sailing to this island. We did Iwo Jima, we can do this. The Marines, my money’s always on the Marines.”
Indeed, Americans did do Iwo Jima, but he neglected to mention the cost.
Whereas the US is looking at airdropping something in the order of 3500 men to take the island, its historical counterpart required three whole marine divisions and an infantry regiment numbering over 73,000 men to take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Iwo_Jima_order_of_battle#Ground_forces
The battle lasted for five weeks and cost 26,000 casualties, including 6800 dead. Mind you, this was against a Japan that was already on its last knees after years of attrition, bombing, and blockade, and the Japanese garrison was hopelessly isolated and outnumbered. They didn’t have FPV drones, ballistic missiles, or Shahed drones to even the odds.
Iwo Jima also had natural forest cover for embarking troops to hide under from artillery. And the Marines landed with heavy equipment and had access to copious quantities of ammunition. US paratroopers would be lightly armed and starved for ammo from the outset. And their landing zones would almost certainly be presighted by Iranian mortars.
We don’t know what type of ground force is garrisoning Kharg, but considering its strategic significance and Trump’s open advertisement of seizing it, I’d say Iran has certainly moved men into the island. And considering Iran’s penchant for underground fortifications and their 30-year preparation time, I’d assume they have deep tunnel complexes, bunkers, and firing positions in the urban areas to the north and in the hills to the south.
Starting this war on Iran was the biggest mistake of Trump’s political career. It will destroy his Presidency and the careers of his underlings. Vance is already thinking about not running for President in 2028, and wisely so, if I might add. Joe Kent has jumped ship, and I’d bet he won’t be the last bigwig to do so.
But an airborne operation on Kharg could turn the trickle of rats out of the sinking USS MAGA into a deluge.
Not only would it be a catastrophic defeat, but it would yield hundreds, if not thousands, of dead American soldiers and prisoners.
Unlike casualties caused by Iranian drone and missile strikes, the admin won’t be able to cover these up, and Iran will no doubt make no bones about showing the mangled corpses of hundreds of American soldiers to the world.
Considering the already high unpopularity of the war, combined with public resentment towards Zionism, Israel, and Jewish power as a whole in the wake of the Epstein affair, this event could pour Chlorine Trifluoride on an already raging bonfire.